Price Analysis for EPS

This week, SM price dropped some after several weeks’ crazy increasing. From Last Wednesday, SM became soft. The peak price is higher than $1600/mt CFR China and RMB peak price is about RMB13100/mt. Till now, Oct shipment cargos’ price decreased till $1520/mt CFR China. But since cargos are still tight in China, RMB price decreased RMB300/mt only, today some deals are heard at RMB12800/mt. In the middle of last week, crude price decreased 3 days continuously. It thrown cold water on crazy SM market. Some players started to sell their inventory to get cash back. Most players hold pessimistic view for Oct market. They felt the demand would be poor since there are a long holiday of National holiday from 30th of Sep till 8th of Oct. Spot cargos are still tight. SM inventory in China is tight. It would be changed after long holiday. It is heard that a lot of cargo would arrive in from Japan and Korea to China. Tight inventory support spot price which rove over at high level. Some players had to buy since they sold some short position. Today the latest deal price of SM is $1520/mt CFR China for Oct shipment cargos. This price is $80/mt higher than last week’s peak price. In domestic market, today some deals are heard at RMB12800/mt, which is RMB300/mt lower than last week’s peak price..s EPS sales slowdown from last weekend. All players would like to buy when the price increase and would stop when the price decrease. Buyers are hold a wait and see view. They would like the digest their inventories first which they purchased in the past several weeks. The operating rate in EPS suppliers still very high. They said they were producing for the cargos which they sold in the past. The inventories in EPS suppliers is pretty low. They had gotten enough orders till middle of Oct. But some suppliers shown their worrying for the market in the fourth quarter. They said price increased too fast in the past several weeks. Maybe price would decrease for a long time. Overseas market also calm down a little. overseas buyers would like to wait and see. Forecast: EPS price would be soft in the near future.